0

Trump, Biden trips offer insight into their Electoral College calculations

Posted on

WASHINGTON (AP) — With Election Day just three weeks away, President Donald Trump and Democratic challenger Joe Biden concentrated Tuesday on battleground states both see as critical to clinching an Electoral College victory, tailoring their travel to best motivate voters who could cast cast potentially decisive ballots.

Biden was in Florida courting seniors, betting that a voting bloc that buoyed Trump four years ago has become disenchanted with the White House’s handling of the coronavrius pandemic. It was Biden’s third visit to the state in a month, after making targeted appeals to veterans and the Latino and Haitian communities.

Trump was in Pennsylvania, Biden’s native state and one where Biden has spent far more time than any other in recent months. The president wants to hammer home the risk that a Democratic administration could limit hydraulic fracking in areas where the economy is heavily dependent on energy. It’s an effort to fire up a conservative base that Trump will have to turn out in droves to secure the 270 electoral votes needed to retain the White House.

The president also campaigned in Sanford, Florida, on Monday and will head back to the state on Friday.

The dueling trips come against the backdrop of a second day of hearings in the Senate to confirm Amy Coney Barrett to the Supreme Court. Trump and top Republicans see a swift confirmation just weeks after the death of Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg as a chance to energize conservatives.

Biden’s campaign believes it can win the presidency without Florida’s 29 electoral votes, but it wants to lock up the state to pad a margin of victory over Trump, who has for months questioned the legitimacy of an election where many people will cast mail-in ballots amid the pandemic. Biden has vowed to win Pennsylvania, but

0

Explainer: The Electoral College and the 2020 U.S. presidential race

Posted on

(Reuters) – In the United States, the winner of a presidential election is determined not by a national vote but through a system called the Electoral College, which allots “electoral votes” to all 50 states and the District of Columbia based on their population.

FILE PHOTO: North Carolina Electoral College representatives sign the Certificates of Vote in the State Capitol building in Raleigh, North Carolina, U.S., December 19, 2016. REUTERS/Jonathan Drake/File Photo

Complicating things further, a web of laws and constitutional provisions kick in to resolve particularly close elections.

Here are some of the rules that could decide the Nov. 3 contest between President Donald Trump and his Democratic challenger Joe Biden.

How does the Electoral College work?

There are 538 electoral votes, meaning 270 are needed to win the election. In 2016, President Donald Trump lost the national popular vote to Hillary Clinton but secured 304 electoral votes to her 227.

Technically, Americans cast votes for electors, not the candidates themselves. Electors are typically party loyalists who pledge to support the candidate who gets the most votes in their state. Each elector represents one vote in the Electoral College.

The Electoral College was a compromise between the nation’s founders, who fiercely debated whether the president should be picked by Congress or through a popular vote.

All but two states use a winner-take-all approach: The candidate that wins the most votes in that state gets all of its electoral votes. Maine and Nebraska use a more complex district-based allocation system that could result in their combined nine electoral votes being split between Trump and Biden.

Can electors go rogue?

Yes.

In 2016, seven of the 538 electors cast ballots for someone other than their state’s popular vote winner, an unusually high number.

Thirty-two states and the District of Columbia have

0

Joe Biden Has 91 Percent Chance of Winning Electoral College, Latest Economist Forecast Predicts

Posted on

Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden has a seemingly prohibitive chance of winning the presidency after gaining a majority of electoral college votes, according to the latest election forecast from The Economist.



a man wearing a suit and tie: Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden speaks to reporters after making a campaign stop in Hebron, Ohio on October 12, 2020.


© Chip Somodevilla/Getty
Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden speaks to reporters after making a campaign stop in Hebron, Ohio on October 12, 2020.

Biden is given a 91 percent chance of winning the electoral college in the forecast as of Monday, while President Donald Trump is given a 9 percent chance. The forecast also predicts that the former vice president is all but certain to win a majority of the popular vote, having a 99 percent chance of winning the lion’s share of the national vote.

Election Day 2020: Where Trump, Biden Stand In The Polls 30 Days Before Nov. 3

UP NEXT

UP NEXT

With 270 electoral college votes needed to win the presidency, Biden is predicted to win an estimated 347 electoral votes, while 191 are estimated for Trump. The forecast is based on a predictive model that simulates 20,000 plausible election outcomes, with each simulation varying vote shares to account for possible polling errors.

Although the model puts the president at a distinct disadvantage, it does not completely write him off. A range of 116 to 312 electoral votes are predicted for Trump, while 226 to 422 votes are predicted for Biden. Scenarios where neither candidate reaches 270 votes were predicted in fewer than 1 percent of simulations.

The forecast looks far from favorable for Trump, but supporters of the president may be quick to point

0

The Electoral College and the 2020 U.S. presidential race

Posted on

By Jan Wolfe



a person sitting on a wooden cutting board: FILE PHOTO: North Carolina Electoral College representatives sign the Certificates of Vote in the State Capitol building in Raleigh, North Carolina


© Reuters/Jonathan Drake
FILE PHOTO: North Carolina Electoral College representatives sign the Certificates of Vote in the State Capitol building in Raleigh, North Carolina

(Reuters) – In the United States, the winner of a presidential election is determined not by a national vote but through a system called the Electoral College, which allots “electoral votes” to all 50 states and the District of Columbia based on their population.

Complicating things further, a web of laws and constitutional provisions kick in to resolve particularly close elections.

Here are some of the rules that could decide the Nov. 3 contest between President Donald Trump and his Democratic challenger Joe Biden.

How does the Electoral College work?

There are 538 electoral votes, meaning 270 are needed to win the election. In 2016, President Donald Trump lost the national popular vote to Hillary Clinton but secured 304 electoral votes to her 227.

Technically, Americans cast votes for electors, not the candidates themselves. Electors are typically party loyalists who pledge to support the candidate who gets the most votes in their state. Each elector represents one vote in the Electoral College.

The Electoral College was a compromise between the nation’s founders, who fiercely debated whether the president should be picked by Congress or through a popular vote.

All but two states use a winner-take-all approach: The candidate that wins the most votes in that state gets all of its electoral votes. Maine and Nebraska use a more complex district-based allocation system that could result in their combined nine electoral votes being split between Trump and Biden.

Can electors go rogue?

Yes.

In 2016, seven of the 538 electors cast ballots for someone other than their state’s popular vote winner, an unusually high number.

Thirty-two states and the District of Columbia have

0

Adam Schiff Tells Bill Maher Abolishing Electoral College an ‘Overdue’ Constitutional Change

Posted on

House Intelligence Committee Chairman Adam Schiff and HBO host Bill Maher discussed how the U.S. Constitution “needs fundamental change” Friday night, with both agreeing the Electoral College should be eliminated from the framework.

Schiff said that he supports a rewrite of the U.S. Constitution and amendments that would abolish the Electoral College, but he cautioned that today’s Republican Party would likely hijack the process. The California Democratic congressman said he would prefer to use “discrete amendments” to the Constitution that would overturn controversial money-in-politics Supreme Court rulings like Citizens United v. Federal Election Commission. Maher said any changes to the Founding Fathers’ framework is difficult because many Americans believe the constitution was “literally delivered by Jesus.”

Both Schiff and Maher said they would be in favor of getting rid of the Electoral College system, which today would require two-thirds of the House, two-thirds of the Senate and three-fourth of all states to agree upon. Operating within a governmental system and national populace as divided as America in 2020, Schiff said, this is very unlikely to happen soon.

“I think we’re better off focusing on discrete amendments to the Constitution to overturn Citizens United and make sure that we can have elections untampered or uninfluenced by excessive expenditures and dark money. And I would favor doing away with the Electoral College system,” Schiff told the Real Time with Bill Maher host Friday.

A 2019 study conducted by researchers at the University of Texas at Austin found Republican candidates for president can expect to win 65 percent of future elections because the Electoral College system is set up to favor their party’s voting base. The study analyzed why “inversions”—when the popular vote winner still loses the U.S. presidential election—have happened twice since 2000. And both times, the losers were Democratic candidates,

1 2