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Joe Biden Has 91 Percent Chance of Winning Electoral College, Latest Economist Forecast Predicts

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Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden has a seemingly prohibitive chance of winning the presidency after gaining a majority of electoral college votes, according to the latest election forecast from The Economist.



a man wearing a suit and tie: Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden speaks to reporters after making a campaign stop in Hebron, Ohio on October 12, 2020.


© Chip Somodevilla/Getty
Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden speaks to reporters after making a campaign stop in Hebron, Ohio on October 12, 2020.

Biden is given a 91 percent chance of winning the electoral college in the forecast as of Monday, while President Donald Trump is given a 9 percent chance. The forecast also predicts that the former vice president is all but certain to win a majority of the popular vote, having a 99 percent chance of winning the lion’s share of the national vote.

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With 270 electoral college votes needed to win the presidency, Biden is predicted to win an estimated 347 electoral votes, while 191 are estimated for Trump. The forecast is based on a predictive model that simulates 20,000 plausible election outcomes, with each simulation varying vote shares to account for possible polling errors.

Although the model puts the president at a distinct disadvantage, it does not completely write him off. A range of 116 to 312 electoral votes are predicted for Trump, while 226 to 422 votes are predicted for Biden. Scenarios where neither candidate reaches 270 votes were predicted in fewer than 1 percent of simulations.

The forecast looks far from favorable for Trump, but supporters of the president may be quick to point