College Football Matrix says Pac-12 playoff hopes caught in numbers game vs. SEC and ACC

Dave Bartoo — known as the “College Football Matrix” — joined me on the radio show on Monday to talk about the Pac-12 football schedule.

Does the conference have a realistic shot at making the College Football Playoff based on the schedule it released over the weekend?

Listen to the full interview with Bartoo.

“The playoff committee is all about numbers,” Bartoo said. “It’s a numbers game. It’s not about perception, or brand. It’s about winning the most vs. Top 25 games.”

On the Ducks playing their crossover game vs. UCLA:

“Unless UCLA somehow gets to 4-3, there have zero value. I would have much rather seen ASU or Utah there if you’re Oregon and trying to get to the playoff.”

On the Big 12 Conference still being very much alive in the playoff talk:

“The Big 12 perception is Oklahoma and Texas. Both look terrible. The conference is down. The nice thing about the playoff committee though is perception isn’t part of it. It’s a numbers game. From a perception standpoint everybody thinks the conference is down. From a reality standpoint, conferences don’t make playoffs, teams do… there are teams that are still involved in the Big 12 who are playoff contenders, it’s just not the ones we expected.”

On a one-loss ACC or SEC team vs. a 7-0 Pac-12 team for a playoff spot:

“If you’re Georgia and 10-1 and you just lost to Alabama in a close game in the SEC title game. Margin of loss is tiny. You kicked the crap out of everyone else. You have a win over a Top 25 Florida, a win over Top 25 Auburn, and you have a win over a Top 25 Tennessee and you have a quality win over Missouri. Even though they’re 10-1, they could be 9-2, you have to look at margin of victory and you start adding up the quality wins… when you’re looking at these things you just gotta do the math. Add up quality wins, total wins, look at margin of victory and margin of loss. Look up those things and you’ll predict the playoff teams.”

Could a two-loss SEC or ACC team get in over an undefeated Pac-12 team:

“SEC and ACC are going to play a whole lot more games, or at least they’re on track to, and with that it gives them more ping-pong balls to try to get teams in the playoff. Right now, really, we might be looking at Georgia, Florida, Alabama, Miami and Clemson. I know Miami and Clemson play this weekend, but a 9-2 Miami might get in over a 7-0 Oregon.”

Listen to more with Dave Bartoo here:

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